Solar PV Forecasting Phase 2

Status:: Complete
Project Reference Number:: NIA_NGET0183
START DATE:
END DATE:

Project summary

Funding mechanism:

Network Innovation Allowance

Research area:

ED - Network improvements and system operability

Technology:

Carbon Emission Reduction Technologies
Distributed Generation
Modelling

Expenditure:

£300,000

The scope of this project is both to understand the variability of solar generation and to improve solar PV generation forecasting in the medium and short term.

Analysis of solar generation will be focused on both regional and GB-aggregated solar PV generation and load factors. Historical assessment will consider 34 years with a resolution of 1 hour and above

At short timescales radar and satellite data and solar generation data driven statistical methods will be utilised to improve solar forecasts derived from NWP models, this work is distinct from, though intended to complement, prior activity that NGET have commissioned to access real time PV generation.

The variability of GB-aggregated solar generation will be assessed based on a newly derived long term dataset (described in work package1); this will have an hourly resolution and run for at least 34 years. This data will be analysed to quantify the magnitude and frequency of a range of solar generation events.

The analysis will focus on two types of low probability events of particular interest:

Persistent generation, where the combined solar and wind generation remains above/below a certain threshold for a prolonged period.
Transition and ramping events, where the solar generation is rapidly changing.

Benefits

This project will provide knowledge that; (1) enables a better insight of the potential impacts of solar PV generation on the power system, at planning time scales and also for assessing tools needed within balancing services (2) improves medium and short term solar generation forecasts and hence demand forecasts . This activity will contribute to cost reduction in an area of high strategic significance. However, the full attribution of constraint and balancing costs is highly complex, rendering any estimate of direct cost benefit misleading at best. Success of this project will be evidenced by availability of solar generation information within the operational planning process. This information can be aligned to three main objectives; (1) Greater awareness and use across NGET of impact of solar generation variability and its interaction with wind generation and demand variability for use in network and commercial planning [WP 1 and 2] (2) Improved medium term solar generation forecasting for use in operational and commercial decision making [WP 2] (3) Improvements in short term solar radiation forecasts to improve operational decision making [WP 3].

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NIA_NGET0183_5129 (07-06-2016 00-00-00) (117.2 KB)

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