Consumers are critical to meeting net zero and are a fundamental part of the transition,not only as part of the energy picture but as part of their everyday lives and the running of their businesses. However, much of the consumer insight we have is from projects with early adopters. We can use these to base some of our assumptions, but we can make this more accurate and informed if we can capture a wider consumer base.
This project will look to develop a set of archetypes covering gas, electricity and hydrogen to benefit the further development of future energy scenarios across the whole system; gas, electricity and hydrogen, transmission and distribution. They will be developed in consultation with stakeholders across the industry to support their adoption.
Benefits
As a central player in the GB electricity system, it is the ESO's role to provide the leadership and guidance for the transition to Net Zero. We are seeking to facilitate a smooth transition through sharing insights and analysis to help industry stakeholders determine the direction of travel and make informed decisions.
The project's outcomes will be fed directly into the Future Energy Scenarios (FES), which outline various credible ways to decarbonise our energy system as we strive toward the 2050 target. The FES is a public document which plays a vital role in stimulating debate and helping to shape the energy system of the future.
To facilitate this, we would like to understand to a greater degree consumer behaviour change and how this can vary through time as well as geographically.
- The project will lead to enhanced assumptions on consumer behaviour change which will have direct implications for modelling done by the ESO and other interested parties.
- As FES feeds directly into electricity and gas network development, an enhanced understanding of consumer behaviour will support decision making on how the networks need to develop to in response to this
- This project will support standardising consumer behaviour modelling across industry
- Allow the ESO to use these archetypes in other important projects that are part of the energy transition e.g., Crowdflex, Demand Flexibility Service.
Learnings
Outcomes
The project has developed understanding of the following, which could be used and applied in future projects:
- The types of consumers and the characteristics that drive their behaviour;
- What this means for their consumption, appetite for change, adoption rates of technology and ability and propensity to engage with time of use tariffs;
- Whether their engagement will be proactive or passive;
- The boundaries within which they would find flexing their demand acceptable;
- Their needs and what drives their decision making (whether it be financial reward or engagement in climate change).
- The level of trust consumers have with different organisations in energy as well as more broadly around technology;
- The proportions that make up each consumer archetype and how this varies geographically;
- How they may engage and with whom;
- What would cause a consumer to move between archetypes.
Review of benefits case
The following were identified as success criteria for the completion of the project. These are anticipated to still be met upon completion of the project.
- The archetypes developed can be applied directly to the FES modelling process
- Relevant stakeholders and project partners from external organisations have received training on how to interpret the archetypes, how to apply them and how to keep them up to date.
- The archetypes will be developed in such a way that they can be easily and quickly adopted within multiple organisations (e.g., via accessible datasets, training and user guidance.)
- The project will improve the ESO’s and partner organisations’ understanding of the types of consumers and the characteristics that drive their behaviour and what this means for their consumption, propensity for change, adoption rates of technology and ability and propensity to engage with time of use tariffs
Next steps
- Finalising the archetypes, their descriptions and the data that will be used in modelling in future iterations of the Future Energy Scenarios
- Training and guidance provided to National Grid ESO and partner organisations
- Plan to keep the archetypes up to date and how to apply them directly to future modelling
Dissemination
Three expert group sessions have been held with relevant stakeholders across industry representing gas and electricity network companies, Ofgem, DESNZ and industrial & commercial consumers via Energy UK. The session materials have been disseminated and recordings shared. Further sessions are planned to finalise the domestic archetypes and to deliver training to partner organisations.
Lessons Learnt
Learning points from the technical analysis phase of the project:
- Different approaches have been used to develop the domestic and non-domestic archetypes due to both the nature of the consumers and also due to the different datasets that are available. Data for large industrial users was difficult to obtain.
- The main source used for the domestic consumers was the SERL (Smart Energy Research Lab) – due to the restricted nature of this data it has been challenging both to access the data and perform analysis on it.
