Electricity Flexibility and Forecasting System (EFFS)

The transition from DNO to DSO will involve performing new functions. These new functions will in turn require new systems to support them. This project is to explore in detail the additional functionality required as a DSO, to evaluate the potential options and implement systems that provide that new functionality.

This will include;

Creating weather adjusted forecasts for load and generation at different time-frames, in order to determine the nature, duration and frequency of expected constraints.
Evaluating the suitability of flexibility services to resolve those constraints.
Communicating flexibility services requirements to the market and creating commercial agreements for those services.
Executing flexibility services including arming, execution, validation of delivery and payment.
Sharing information with interested parties to avoid conflicts in flexibility service use

The project will consider the optimum degree of integration with existing systems and whether simplified alternatives to full optimised powerflow analysis can provide sufficiently reliable information.

Objectives

The project method is to deliver a robust DSO system capability, by:

1 – Forecasting Evaluation

Determine optimal forecasting arrangements for short term (2-5 days ahead) and near real time forecasting. This considers the sources of data, methods of forecasting, accuracy of forecasts and critical timings for other processes e.g. gate closure. It considers available load forecasts provided by National Grid, whether combining forecasts is beneficial and options for improvement such as within-day correction.

2 – Co-ordination

Determine optimal arrangements for co-ordination and conflict resolution with other parties using flexibility services. This could include different providers e.g. direct provision or via a third party (aggregator or supplier), or price signals for real-time trading, advanced notification, dynamic amendment of systems e.g ANM or merit

3 - Determine Requirements

Incorporate the learning from Methods 1 & 2 to determine and then specify the system requirements for:

long term flexibility service assessments and cost benefit analysis, and
short term assessment and implementation.

This will determine whether a single system is required for long and short term requirements or whether these are better managed separately. This will maximise the use of open standards and modular solutions using data available to all DNOs. DSOs may take on further responsibilities such as local network balancing on behalf of the TSO. Any proposed systems should be able to support the potential range of DSO activities and will involve data exchanges with third parties including triggering services.

4 – Implementation & Testing

The systems specified by Method 3 will then be built, implemented and tested to prove their suitability. Method 4 is anticipated to involve development of AMT Sybex Networkflow software suite.

Academic / independent experts will provide oversight and assurance for Methods 1 & 2.

Electricity Flexibility and Forecasting System (EFFS)

Project summary

Objectives

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