The project aims to explore the impact of all-electric heat networks on the power grid and how Distribution Network Operators can manage them flexibly. The project will conduct a thorough analysis to assess whether network capacity can be freed up through smarter and more flexible design approaches.
There is currently a limited understanding of existing and upcoming heat networks as well as their potential impact on the electricity network. By using external datasets from DESNZ and other sources, and applying modelling, the project will provide a more accurate picture of potential heat network uptake than is currently possible. The scope includes mapping existing networks and developing a pipeline of new heat networks anticipated in UK Power Networks’ licence areas through to 2033.
Benefits
This project will enable benefits across the whole of UK Power Networks’ areas upon full rollout and so HeatScape is not directly impacting vulnerable customers, but vulnerable customers who are supplied by heat networks will benefit from this project. By improving the heat network and electricity network efficiency through flexibility, the cost to connect and run heat networks would be decreased, enabling heat networks to be more accessible and affordable to end-consumers.
Learnings
Outcomes
Electrification and flexible operation of heat networks will form an increasingly material component of UK Power Networks’ future load profile, including over the ED3 price control period. Heat networks represent a major emerging electrical‑demand class, particularly under the UK Government’s heat network zoning. They offer controllable, predictable flexibility that aligns with ED3’s emphasis on efficiency and visibility.
UK Power Networks’ current flexibility provides limited incremental value beyond (Time of Use) ToU signals for heat networks within the scenarios assessed, highlighting the need for tailored mechanisms. The heat network regulatory framework strengthens the case for thermal‑storage and advanced controls – capabilities central to HeatScape’s modelling. In summary, the HeatScape Project results have shown that the contribution of existing and future networks ranges from ~0.2 GW today to ~0.7 GW by 2030 and ~1.8 GW by 2050. At the same time, operational optimisation – p incipally shifting heat‑pump operation with thermal storage -delivers a ~30% reduction in demand during the 6-7 pm window and a ~74% increase in the 3-4 am off‑peak period, indicating strong load‑shifting capability without compromising heat supply. Storage volumes rise sharply under flexible operation (~100% for fully electric networks; ~234-264% for transitioning networks), mirroring the sector’s movement toward lower‑temperature operation and storage‑led control. Finally, while a dynamic ToU tariff drives most of the flexible behaviour observed, the incremental impact of the current long‑term flexibility product is modest, suggesting that today’s product design and timings are not yet calibrated to heat‑network demand patterns.
In addition, the integration of HeatScape demand profiles into UK Power Networks’ SFS has enabled new insights at both system‑wide and substation level. This has supported improved visibility of where and when electrified heat networks are likely to drive reinforcement requirements, as well as where flexible operation could materially mitigate local network constraints. The SFS analysis has strengthened understanding of future network utilisation under different heat‑network decarbonisation pathways, supporting more informed long‑term planning decisions and highlighting opportunities to proactively manage capacity at specific substations.
For the market research, in total, 55 stakeholders were invited and 15 were interviewed: nine property owners (sports & recreation, offices, residential), one commercial tenant (offices), one facilities manager (sports & recreation), three property developers (residential/ commercial developments), and one Resident Association member (residential). This market research identified six interconnected themes – end‑user behaviour and engagement, financial incentives, flexibility versus reliability, shared control and autonomy, data and system simplicity, and contractual and regulatory frameworks as enablers – that consistently shape stakeholder attitudes, behaviours, and the practical realities of implementing heat flexibility at building level. The emergence of repeated themes across stakeholder types highlights their significance and practical implications for designing and delivering effective heat flexibility programmes. Recommendations for action have been proposed based on the market research outcomes.
Lessons Learnt
The lessons learnt can be summarised as follows:
Data processing is critical for the modelling required by the project. Particularly, the data quality of the public datasets required significant effort to process across multiple datasets to fill the gaps and ensure consistency to the best of the project’s capability. Future projects (and/or BaU implementation of this project’s methodology) should seek to work with improving public datasets and develop more automated data processing approaches.
Due to limited data availability, the project employed a simplistic approach to energy centre connectivity to the distribution network, assigning energy centres to their most proximal asset (at a particular network level). As large point loads, energy centres play a significant role in determining the peak load, and as a result, the demand headroom of the assets to which they connect. Future work should focus on improving the connectivity data on existing networks and think strategically about how to connect planned future networks.
Archetyping of electricity profiles of energy centres, which is required for integration into the SFS could be further refined, to better capture/represent the nuances in profiles of the significant number of heat networks (including both existing and future ones).
Future projects could take more advantage of energy centre modelling frameworks to calibrate/design flexibility products targeted at heat networks.
Future projects could build on the market research findings of this project to broaden the sample size of stakeholders as well as deeper dive into the identified themes, in order to assist design of flexibility schemes/products at a building level.
