The project aims to investigate how all-electric heat networks could affect the power grid and how the Distribution Network Operator can manage them flexibly. The project will conduct a thorough analysis to determine if it's possible to free up capacity in the network by using a smarter design that's suitable for flexible connections. UK Power Networks will partner with a Heat Network developer/operator that has an operational heat network in the area to test and validate a design optimization methodology through a one-year trial.
Benefits
The total benefit of this project is estimated based on the following points:
The electrical peak load on a primary substation can be reduced up to 40% if the heat network uses the thermal storage flexibility compared to a counterfactual. We assumed a conservative scenario where UK Power Networks could offer profiled or timed connections to the highest demanding heat network customers, representing 25% of the total number of primary substations in LPN, EPN and SPN. This method will reduce the district heat (or heat network) pump winter peak load (Strategic Forecasting System data) by 10% (25% of 40%) in all UK Power Networks areas. Therefore, this method will avoid use of capacity in the network and avoid reinforcements.
Based on the above assumptions, the project is estimated to reduce reinforcement costs by a range of £80k-£400k annually.
Therefore, the overall anticipated benefits from this project following a BAU transition is forecasted to be £0.77m by the end of RIIO-ED2 and an NPV £4.32m cumulative by end of RIIO-ED3.
Learnings
Outcomes
The project is currently in the middle of its Feasibility Phase (WS1), and the outcomes so far can be summarised as follows.
The project engaged with four HNOs and received data from two HNOs.
The project analysed and verified data from two HNOs through site visits.
The project is completing modelling for the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park site.
The project identified initial optimisation variables and will be tested through heat network optimisation.
The project conducted initial engagement with the DSO team to understand the concept of flexible connections, which will help formulate the objective of the heat network optimisation.
Upon the completion of the baseline and optimisation modelling, the techno-economic analysis and business case will be produced, along with a final report for the Feasibility Phase (WS1). The WS1 findings will also be presented during the decision-gate meeting for WS2 commencement.
Lessons Learnt
The project is currently in the Feasibility Phase (WS1), and the learning from the project so far can be summarised in the following themes.
Engagement with HNOs – better communication of what is expected of the HNO partners and what the HNO partners may require from the project could help make the recruitment process more efficient. For example, some of the HNO partners would only be keen to share their studies for future heat network design and operation but not be willing to supply data for existing heat networks; another one would require commercial compensation for their participation. The current HNO partner, Bring Energy Limited, was very engaged throughout the recruitment process, which contributed significantly to the outcome of selecting them for the project.
Baseline modelling of a real heat network – it has been challenging to develop a good model of a real heat network, particularly given the availability and quality of historical data, the real-life operation of plant deviating from norms and/or original design, interim changes to plants (e.g. plant decommission, operational faults). It is worth highlighting that proactive conversations with the HNO partner and being able to visit their site have contributed significantly towards the progress achieved so far.
Project evolution – the understanding of and learning from the heat network is evolving whilst the data analysis and modelling is progressing. This means the project may benefit from a flexible delivery approach to accommodate this evolution, such as these potential modifications mentioned above.
