Learnings

Outcomes

The outputs of the project are:

-          Qualitative learning from over 250 stakeholders and customers across three workshops and one webinar

-          Low carbon heat and energy efficiency uptake forecasts

-          Domestic and non-domestic stock models used within the project decarbonisation scenario modelling  

-          Analysis on consumer and fuel poverty impact, presented as a proportion of households bill ranges for individual local areas.

The project outcomes include:

-          A credible forecast, based on evidence and data, for how heat decarbonisation will play out across UK Power Networks’ regions;

-          Evaluating the role of UK Power Networks to facilitate the electrification of heat. Insights helped UK Power Networks develop energy efficiency roll-out commitments for its customers in RIIO-ED2 business plan;

-          Data and insights for Local Authorities and Community Energy Groups to target the roll-out of their energy efficiency and decarbonisation of heat programmes based on the most cost efficient and least disruptive solutions. Some councils were able to target the roll out of Green Homes Grant and Local Authority Delivery Scheme funds based on this information e.g. Hammersmith & Fulham council. Other local authorities e.g. Lambeth were able to develop granular decarbonisation action plans based on this data as a starting point. 

Other key findings: 

While the scale and speed of electrification varies by scenario, there are some consistent trends across all three scenarios. Geographic areas and consumer types highly likely to electrify in all scenarios include: 

• Off-gas grid areas. Since hydrogen for heating is not available/predicted to become available where buildings are not currently connected to the gas grid, off-gas areas use a combination of electricity and bioenergy to replace fossil fuel heating in all our scenarios.

• New builds. From 2025, all new builds are electrically heated. 

• Urban areas. These also see higher electrification by 2030, particularly in space constrained city centre areas where direct electric technologies are attractive. More efficient and modern buildings (and those with standard construction types that can easily be treated with cavity wall and loft insulation) are likely to be early adopters of heat pumps since they can benefit from full potential of low temperature operational efficiency. These buildings tend to be located outside of city centres. 

• Energy efficiency deployment is found to be higher in areas where the heating predominantly electrifies. This is because higher levels of energy efficiency improve the operating efficiency that can be achieved with low temperature heat pumps, and significantly decrease the costs of all types of electric heating.

Lessons Learnt

-When hosting a workshop for a small group (12 or less) where a large amount of feedback is desired, it works well to request each attendee answer every single question. 

-External research and data sources must be used for research projects to avoid duplication. In this case, multiple valuable datasets from BEIS and other sources were utilised.  

- Assessing results with internal and external stakeholders before finalising a project can offer an opportunity to further improve project outcomes

- A complex research project with broad stakeholder appeal should always include a plan to share results in a simple way.