This project will produce an analysis of the potential volume of hydrogen that could be produced from curtailed electricity out to 2035, and also analyse the economics of hydrogen production from curtailed electrons.
The use of curtailed electrons to produce hydrogen would have a range of benefits, including:
· Utilise otherwise wasted energy, where a significant amount of constraints are currently coming from constraining wind behind the Scottish transmission boundaries
· Displacing the use of alternative fossil fuels (which may reduce reliance on imported fuels)
· Generate carbon savings
· Provide a significant volume of hydrogen to the market and end users.
· Help stimulate the development of the hydrogen market
Benefits
The benefits from this project include:
• Independent analysis of the potential scale of hydrogen production from ‘excess’ renewable generation in the short term (i.e., 2035) that could be transported through the NTS.
• Detailed understanding on the economic viability of electrolytic hydrogen projects seeking to use ‘excess’ renewables in a range of different operating models. This will help industry understand whether existing market mechanisms are sufficient to support the viability of electrolytic hydrogen projects using constrained electrons, or whether additional mechanisms are required to support their viability.
• Examination of the role additional subsidy mechanisms could play in supporting the viability of electrolytic hydrogen projects in conjunction with using constrained ‘excess’ renewables. These findings should illuminate how additional market mechanisms could reduce Government subsidy (i.e., tax payer funding) to support electrolytic hydrogen projects.
Learnings
Outcomes
The key question that this study looked to answer was to whether electrolysers using curtailed renewables could be economic, assuming the hydrogen could be blended into the gas transmission system and asks if they would require any additional subsidies. The study showed that hydrogen production using curtailed energy can be economic over some of the forecast horizon. Results for 2025 suggest that there are limited circumstances where such production would be economic, but in 2030 due reductions in power prices and increases in transmission constraints, many of the business models show at least one positive economic case. In 2035 there are fewer transmission constraints due to assumed build out of the transmission grid, so the economics of electrolysers worsens, with only some business models remaining economic. Additional revenues required to make different electrolyser business models economic were analysed, and the different revenues that could potentially be accessed by an electrolyser were discussed, including the Hydrogen Business model. Current UK policy support does not support hydrogen blending, but details of the ongoing consultation were included in the study which indicates that such support could be available, albeit at a lower level than comparable projects which have a dedicated offtaker.
Value tracking
Data Point Data Point Definition
Maturity TRL2-3 Research project
Opportunity <25% of single asset class Project focus is on electrolysers and curtailment, not currently part of the
NTS
Deployment costs - Not yet known, research project
Innovation cost £74,000 Cost of innovation project
Financial Saving - Financial savings are not currently identified due to early TRL level.
It is projected that curtailed energy is economic for hydrogen production in 2030.
Safety - Not a focus of the project
Environmental - No direct environmental benefit, albeit there is associated CO2 savings of
utilising electrolysers for energy production
Compliance Support Compliance -
Skills & Competencies No change -
Future proof Supports business strategy Results of project could support updates to NGT strategy and future
business development
Lessons Learnt
Engagement with National Gas was undertaken bi-weekly with added additional meetings, many close together, to ensure the understanding of the more technical aspects of the work were understood by the client. These were not originally envisaged in the project plan and future projects would be wise to add in a couple of workshops at the end of work packages to ensure that this clarity in understanding is communicated early before moving on to the next piece of work. This was further complicated by the overlap in some workstreams, which while beneficial for the project meant that this understanding was a bigger job than if confined to just a single work package. The research itself has provided a number of insights in how the interface between electricity and hydrogen in GB works, which could be a useful for government and industry to consider for development of new policy, support of different types of project or providing an economic case to make a business investment.