It has been identified within FES that gas demand is being underestimated, risking underbuilding / undermaintaining a network which could be detrimental to UK plc, in the energy transition. A different approach is needed across methane, and hydrogen vectors going forward, to manage energy resilience, societal and commercial risks.
CPP will take a forward-looking approach to the medium-term (2030/40) to establish no regret peak capacity requirements across energy vectors to deliver resilient gas, hydrogen, and electricity networks. This will be achieved by examining the sensitivity of key scenario assumptions within FES and considering the impact of policy decisions. It is expected the output of the CPP project will enable the SOs to model network capability requirements and identify investments for the T3 period and beyond.
Benefits
1) The CPP approach will work alongside the existing energy scenario models, taking a forward-look to the medium term (2030/40) to establish no regret peak capability requirements across energy vectors to deliver resilient and energy secure gas, hydrogen, and electricity networks.
2) It is expected that the output of the CPP project will enable System Operations to model network capability requirements and identify the required investments for the T3 period and beyond. We are aware that the ESO is revising the FES and is considering its purpose as it transitions to the FSO, which is required to make a whole system and affordable transition to net-zero. The CPP will help to bridge the gap and could be a useful tool across energy networks, FSO, regulators, and government.
3) The project should enhance confidence in delivery of a credible path to net-zero while identifying key requirements for energy security during the transition.
Learnings
Outcomes
Globally, electricity networks are gearing up for the challenges of constructing millions of kilometres of new circuits and associated substation infrastructure. The pace required is unprecedented and will be challenged by supply chain constraints and competition for
skilled workers. There will be risks of shortfalls in energy supply, particularly if there is a lack of dispatchable power. Careful planning and management will be needed to avoid cascading effects that could quickly lead to grid constraints and shortfalls in essential
energy delivered to consumers.
There is no single perfect solution to the challenge of reaching net zero by 2050, but if an orderly transition is to be achieved a strategic pathway is required for the whole energy system. The Common Planning Pathway (CPP) is a step towards such a pathway using a
balanced whole energy system approach. It has been developed independently with expert input and stakeholder engagement iteratively informing system dynamics modelling.
When compared with other published illustrative scenarios the CPP outlook is a slower transition in the short to medium term, before accelerating towards 2050. The CPP shows there is a need for thermal power stations during periods of low variable renewable
generation during future network conditions, in tandem with significant volumes of long duration hydrogen storage. This indicates that backup solutions, such as a maintained level of investment in the gas networks, are required in the short to medium term to mitigate these risks and provide resilience.
Lessons Learnt
The key deliverables will inform the high-level investment decisions across all energy vectors . A key lesson learnt will be a deeper understanding of the interdependency across the energy vectors and how this can be used to help achieve Net Zero in the most cost-efficient way.
One important distinction between the FES and the CPP is that the CPP accounts for inertia in the energy system, resulting in an outlook with a slower transition pace in the short to medium term before converging towards the FES projections in the later years.
The project has demonstrated how forward planning based on the FES risks under-investing in the gas networks, and under-planning for future transmission of hydrogen molecules. There are significant challenges to building out power grid infrastructure in time to meet ambitious targets and addressing supply chain issues at the scales required. This could increase the risk of energy shortfalls, especially if network planning is underpinned by these ambitious scenarios. It is important to consider energy system resilience and solutions such as a maintained level of investment in the gas networks in the short-term to mitigate these risks.
Another consideration that the CPP explores is the potential consequences of a shortfall in energy supply, particularly if there is a lack of dispatchable power. The project has demonstrated that there is a need for gas-fired power stations during periods of low variable renewable generation in the future, in tandem with significant volumes of long-duration hydrogen storage.
