Solar PV Forecasting Phase 1

The scope of the project is to both support Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) improvements and establish effective techniques to improve upon raw NWP output, both of which are areas the Met Office have scientific expertise in.

Benefits

This project’s aim is to drive improvement in the key climatological variable that feeds National Grid’s PV generation forecast model. These Improvements can be more accurately measured by comparing National Grid PV forecasts derived on project completion with the PV outturn data calculated using the method given by the NIA PV Monitoring Phase 2 project (NIA_NGET0170).

Post Processing Work Packages

Immediate improvement in National Grid’s operational PV power forecasts, including those published for industry visibility.
Reduction of demand forecast error. This would lead to reduced balancing costs for managing the current level of solar PV on the system and reducing the costs to consumers of introducing further solar PV on the power system.

Core Science Work Package:

This work package would support and boost research and potential development in the fundamental cloud/radiation physics at the heart of our Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Where, as a result of this focus, the Met Office identify improvements, they will work to develop these into their operational capability as means to provide improved solar irradiance forecasting. However, the Met Office has to ensure that enhancements do not adversely affect other applications of NWP and for this reason cannot commit to specific timelines. A progress report will be provided in the research and development pertinent to solar radiation forecasting at appropriate intervals through the life of the project.

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