The current probabilistic restoration model, a bespoke, excel based tool developed by NESO over a decade ago, is increasingly challenged by the growing complexity of the energy system.
A recent audit identified the need to improve its maintainability and adaptability. This project aims to develop a new or significantly enhanced model l that is robust, flexible and aligned with the evolving energy landscape. The updated model will support more accurate and efficient assessment of restoration strategies, offering valuable insights into Great Britain’s restoration capabilities. By addressing the limitations of the legacy tool, the project will ensure that NESO is equipped with a future-ready solution capable of supporting system resilience and compliance with emerging restoration standards.
Benefits
1. What is the expected benefit delivered directly by THIS PROJECT?
1a.Short outcome statement (clear and specific)
This project will develop and demonstrate an advanced restoration modelling capability for a low-carbon electricity system with high levels of distributed resources, enabling NESO to assess restoration strategies more effectively, improve resilience to system disruptions, reduce operational dependencies, enhance auditability and data security, and provide credible evidence of compliance with emerging restoration standards.
1b. Who will benefit from this project and in what way?
The wider energy industry and society as a whole will benefit from this project through an improved understanding of system restoration in a low-carbon electricity system. For NESO and other industry stakeholders, the project will provide a stronger basis for assessing restoration strategies and evaluating Black Start tenders more effectively. In turn, this will support better-informed decision-making, strengthen system resilience, and contribute to a more secure and reliable electricity supply for consumers.
1c. How confident are you this project will deliver this benefit?
Confidence in delivery is assessed as medium, as the project is expected to provide valuable evidence and practical learning through development and demonstration. However, the extent of realised benefit will depend on successful model validation, stakeholder adoption, and how effectively the outputs can 1. What is the expected benefit delivered directly by THIS PROJECT?
1a.Short outcome statement (clear and specific)
This project will develop and demonstrate an advanced restoration modelling capability for a low-carbon electricity system with high levels of distributed resources, enabling NESO to assess restoration strategies more effectively, improve resilience to system disruptions, reduce operational dependencies, enhance auditability and data security, and provide credible evidence of compliance with emerging restoration standards.
1b. Who will benefit from this project and in what way?
The wider energy industry and society as a whole will benefit from this project through an improved understanding of system restoration in a low-carbon electricity system. For NESO and other industry stakeholders, the project will provide a stronger basis for assessing restoration strategies and evaluating Black Start tenders more effectively. In turn, this will support better-informed decision-making, strengthen system resilience, and contribute to a more secure and reliable electricity supply for consumers.
1c. How confident are you this project will deliver this benefit?
Confidence in delivery is assessed as medium, as the project is expected to provide valuable evidence and practical learning through development and demonstration. However, the extent of realised benefit will depend on successful model validation, stakeholder adoption, and how effectively the outputs can be integrated into future operational and procurement processes.
1d. Can this benefit be quantified? (For development and demonstration projects provide quantified estimates where reasonably possible. If quantification is not currently feasible, explain why and what evidence supports the expected benefit)
No – while the qualitative benefits are clear and have been outlined above, robust quantification is not currently feasible at this stage. This is due to the inherent uncertainty associated with development and demonstration projects, as well as the difficulty of assigning measurable system-level benefits to restoration outcomes that relate to rare, large-scale blackout events which, by their nature, are infrequent and cannot be directly observed in practice.
2. What is the expected benefit if this idea is implemented at full scale?
2a. High-level outcome statement
At full scale, this capability will enable NESO to simulate a range of blackout scenarios, assess the effectiveness of restoration plans, and make more informed, evidence-based decisions to improve restoration performance and overall system resilience.
2b. Who will benefit from this project in the future and in what way?
See answer to question 1b.
2c. What needs to happen for this future benefit to be realised?
Not relevant to this project.
2d. How confident are you this project will deliver this benefit?
Not relevant to this project.
2e. Can this benefit be quantified? (For development and demonstration projects provide quantified estimates where reasonably possible. If quantification is not currently feasible, explain why and what evidence supports the expected benefit)
Not relevant to this project.
