This project aims to provide a means (tool structure) to forecast the impact of temperature events on asset behaviour and the implications for overall network performance, risk and resilience. Currently, the absolute strain that extreme heat or rapid temperature changes poses on critical infrastructure is not entirely known. Yet, we expect more multi-faced weather events such as severe heat and cold waves with undulating characteristics which pose a threat to normal operation of electrical components especially within aged equipment. Currently, no method exists to explicitly outline how service delivery is affected, neither is there any matrix to fully assemble resilience against multi-hazards weather extremes. This project will inform NGET’s and SSEN-T’s related RIIO investment planning, in-year planning and improve real time network decision making.
Benefits
This project will inform NGET’s and SSEN-T’s related RIIO investment planning, in-year planning and improve real time network decision making.
The project output will address challenges in three key areas;
- Tactical / Event Response – where real time forecasts of anticipated extreme events e.g., heat waves can be used to understand the live impacts on the grid, informing decisions or interventions that can be taken to maintain safe operation.
- Asset health forecasting / monitoring – where the long-term effects of multi-hazard weather events such as extreme temperature cycles, and related impact on asset aging, can be understood allowing operational decisions to be taken on outage planning, maintenance, and rating reviews.
- Long term investment planning – involving identification of future network constraints under extreme conditions supported by evidence to substantiate future investment and network reinforcement.
Learnings
Outcomes
The project outcomes emanate from the coordinated deliverables within the project specific progresses highlighted above.
Project 1
The discovery phase will:
- Identify key use cases, including relevant aspects of weather, and how system consequences
can be quantified (this might be in terms of cost, or in terms of engineering standards or required technical performance)
- Develop understanding from NGET of what the decisions associated with these use cases are, and how justifications need to be made
- Confirm appropriate datasets for use, including spatial/temporal resolution, and the appropriate balance (which may be use case dependent) between use of historic and climate model data
- Review relevant industrial and research literature, and liaise on best practice with energy industry connections in Europe & United States of America
- Produce detailed work plan for Alpha phase, and update on planned outputs and schedule beyond Alpha
The alpha phase will:
- Study in detail the risk in future climate associated with one of the use cases, and how it changes from present day risk. This will be in liaison with relevant infrastructure experts to ensure the climate analysis is linked to NGET’s decision making.
- Detailed plan developed for analysis of the other two use cases, and for the application to supporting decision making
- Produce a report on state of knowledge about summer heat-related aspects of climate looking towards 2050
- Plan to be part of a more detailed engineering case study on a particular location
Project 2
Workstream 0; THERMAL programme management
- Frazer-Nash will provide overarching programme management support on your behalf to coordinate the interrelated projects and facilitate communication and knowledge sharing
Workstream 2; Predictive modelling requirements for HV assets under extreme temperatures.
- Requirement capture and literature review.
- Stakeholder engagement and literature review summary note.
- Assessment criteria definition
- A comprehensive taxonomy of NGET’s HV assets and groups of assets that are potentially vulnerable to future extreme temperature events.
- Model development pathways for identified asset types together with multi-criteria analysis
Workstream 5; THERMAL tool development
- Demonstrate functionality and integrability to existing NGET digital platforms.
Project 3
- Enhanced thermal rating methodologies
- Validated thermal models
- Integrated circuit capacity analysis
- Standardized component models
- Asset health monitoring enquiry & ageing impact evaluation
- Informed decision-making recommendations
Project 4
- Fragility curves-based asset vulnerability assessment
- Power system resilience modelling/quantification approaches
- Resilience analysis methods for extreme heat events
- Network model development and validation
- Mathematical formulation for estimating overhead line (new or aged) conductor life based on stress tests experimental data
- Asset fatigue and life reduction representative equations
- Fragility-based resilience framework based on extreme heat events
Project 5
- Proof-of-concept THERMAL tool structure integrating the relevant THERMAL program outputs
Recommendations for further work
The current programme is revealing further requirements and needs for extended analysis that will result in potential follow up projects capacitating NGET’s thermal risk modelling and related asset management decision support in the next regulatory period.
Lessons Learnt
Lessons have been drawn from the data and resource challenges that resulted in required modifications applied to the project schedule so far.
Resorting to the per circuit approach provided the following benefits:
- Alignment with NGET processes by undertaking thermal risk analysis on a “per circuit” format instead of “per asset” aligns well with current processes.
- Employing such dynamic and agile project approaches to transmission operators like NGET’s way of working yields efficiencies in ensuring data and documentation availability as well as structuring a leaner & easier stakeholder engagement process.
Dissemination
Project 1 shared technical discussions with related projects and stakeholders in some of their common platforms such as the Climate Resilience Decision Optimiser (CReDo+) project led by UKPN – South Eastern Power Networks Plc.
