The project aims to explore, identify factors, analyse and manage the future fluctuations through disaggregated information of interconnector (IC) flows caused by operation and market dynamics, which lead to imbalanced volumes and unnecessary operational costs. In addition, this also impact the overall system security in terms of procuring additional responses and reserve holdings in managing the IC movements. The project seeks to identify the factors influencing future IC flow changes, improve forecast movement accuracy, and develop a robust operational strategy to mitigate these risks. The goal is to enhance the efficiency and security of the NESO operations by anticipating and optimising future IC movements.

Benefits

This project is expected to benefit the Electricity National Control Centre (ENCC) by improving confidence in operational dispatch decisions through more accurate interconnector (IC) movement analysis. It quantifies IC movements against key factors, helping mitigate risks such as ramping errors. Projected IC movements could also enable quicker responses to imbalance volumes, improving operational reliability, efficiency, and safety.

While not directly measured in this project, longer-term outcomes may include more accurate quantification of reserve and response holdings that incorporate IC movements. Moderated IC movements could give UK energy consumers better access to affordable electricity from international sources, potentially reducing costs for end users and lowering the need for ancillary market services.