Learnings

Outcomes

Outcome 1 – Stronger evidence base for domestic flexibility design and policy

The project materially strengthened NESO’s evidence base on how domestic consumers engage with demand flexibility in practice. By delivering a large‑scale evaluation of the second year of the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), the project generated robust, up‑to‑date insight into participation behaviours, motivations, perceived benefits, and barriers across a wide range of household types.

Compared to earlier DFS evidence, the evaluation demonstrated improved participation and reported ease of engagement, enabling more confident conclusions to be drawn about what supports sustained consumer involvement in flexibility services. Outcomes were underpinned by a large domestic consumer survey delivered via DFS providers, a nationally representative opinion poll, and linked smart meter data where consent was provided.

As a result, NESO’s ability to inform the design, targeting, and assessment of future domestic flexibility mechanisms was strengthened, with reduced reliance on assumptions and greater confidence in evidence‑based decision‑making.

Outcome 2 – Improved integration of consumer behaviour into NESO modelling and analysis

The project delivered a step‑change in how domestic consumer behaviour is represented within NESO’s modelling and analytical frameworks. DFS Evaluation findings were used to enhance domestic consumer archetypes with detailed demand flexibility characteristics, including differences in participation propensity, engagement style, and confidence in shifting demand.

By integrating survey evidence, nationally representative opinion polling, and real‑world smart meter data where available, the project improved NESO’s capability to reflect behavioural diversity and realistic flexibility potential across consumer types. This represents a measurable improvement on previous approaches that relied on more static or assumed representations of consumer demand.

These enhanced archetypes provide a stronger foundation for future system analysis, scenario development, and policy assessment.

Outcome 3 – Clearer strategic direction for the future role of domestic flexibility

Beyond the immediate DFS Evaluation outputs, the project generated learning with broader strategic relevance for NESO and the wider energy system. The findings clarified where low‑barrier flexibility services can build skills and confidence among consumers, where participation frictions persist, and where structural barriers may limit engagement for certain groups.

These insights provide a clearer evidence base for shaping future flexibility pathways, identifying where automation, improved guidance, or additional support may be required as flexibility services scale.

Outcome 4 – Improved capability to represent low‑carbon heat demand in future system modelling

This project strengthened NESO’s capability to represent the electricity system impacts of low‑carbon heating by establishing a consistent, analytically robust approach to synthetically modelling electrified heat demand profiles. By considering the impacts of heating technology, building characteristics and consumer heating behaviour, it enabled a more joined‑up understanding of how heat pumps and other forms of electric heating may shape future demand profiles.

The resulting synthetic profile generator tool enables low‑carbon heat demand profiles to be incorporated consistently into future scenario analysis and system modelling. This strengthens NESO’s ability to assess how differences in heating technologies and consumer behaviour propagate through to system demand and costs, directly supporting NESO’s wider decarbonisation objectives by reducing uncertainty in the assessment of residential heat electrification.

Overall impact

Collectively, these outcomes strengthened NESO’s analytical readiness to incorporate both domestic demand flexibility and low‑carbon heat into future system planning. The project reduced reliance on high‑level assumptions, improved behavioural realism in modelling inputs, and generated clear learning to inform future innovation, policy development, and analytical workstreams.

Lessons Learnt

Early engagement with delivery partners is critical to evidence quality.

The project showed that where consumer research depends on intermediaries (such as flexibility service providers), early alignment with delivery timelines and customer communication plans is essential. Securing buy‑in at an early stage would improve response rates and reduce delivery risk in future projects.

Non‑domestic flexibility requires tailored research methods.

Survey‑based approaches alone proved insufficient to generate robust non‑domestic flexibility evidence. Future projects should adopt alternative approaches, such as targeted qualitative research, closer collaboration with aggregators, or direct use of operational and metering data.

Mixed‑methods approaches significantly strengthen insight.

Combining behavioural research with operational data (including smart meter and performance data where consent is available) improved confidence in findings and enabled richer interpretation of flexibility behaviour. Planning for data integration from the outset should be standard practice.

Low‑barrier flexibility participation can build capability over time.

Evidence from the DFS Evaluation indicated that repeat participation was associated with greater confidence and ease of engagement. Future flexibility initiatives should recognise the cumulative learning effects of participation, particularly as a pathway towards more advanced or automated flexibility.

Equity, accessibility and communication must be explicitly designed in.

While DFS engaged a broad range of households, financial constraints, practical barriers, and clarity of communication continued to influence perceived benefits and participation burden. Future projects should explicitly consider inclusion and accessibility to ensure flexibility services deliver fair and sustainable outcomes.