Flexpectation aims to deliver accurate short-term (1 hour to 2 weeks ahead) forecasts of demand and embedded generation for every NGED primary substation. By improving visibility of network loading during outages and abnormal running, the tool will help target flexibility more efficiently and reduce unnecessary procurement. Ultimately, it will give control and planning teams a clearer, data-driven picture of upcoming constraints to support faster and more confident operational decisions.

Benefits

Flexpectation will deliver an improvement in NGED’s short-term forecasting capability, providing a probabilistic, weather-aware forecasting service that will significantly enhance how outages, constraints and flexibility requirements are planned and managed. By replacing judgment-based methods with a fully automated, data-driven approach, the project will reduce uncertainty around future loading and enable far more accurate identification of when flexibility is genuinely required. This improved operational visibility is expected to reduce utilisation costs allowing NGED to target flexibility more efficiently and strengthen the economic case for flex as a tool to manage constraints. In parallel, the project will deliver important non-financial benefits, including improved resilience during abnormal running, better estimation of embedded generation, strengthened data governance, and an open-source forecasting framework that can be replicated by all GB DNOs. Collectively, these improvements will support lower OPEX, more reliable network operation, and a enable greater proactive intelligent decision making for the DSO function.

Summary of Key Benefits

• Reduction in flexibility utilisation costs through more accurate, targeted dispatch.
• Enhanced operational resilience, particularly during outages and abnormal running.
• Improved visibility of embedded generation and unmasked demand.
• Greater forecasting accuracy at all primary substations, enabling proactive constraint management.
• Strengthened data governance via structured, validated data pipelines.
• Open-source, fully replicable method that can be adopted by all GB DNOs.
• Supports DSO transition, enabling more efficient whole-system decision-making.