Learnings

Outcomes

Outputs from Stage 1 of the project are available on the project webpage. This includes:

• Stage 1 Network Modelling report: Produced by EA Technology Ltd, this report details the network modelling work undertaken in Stage 1. EA Technology’s Transform tool was used to study the LV to 33kV networks, and NGED’s Simple Curtailment Tool which was used to evaluate 4 Grid Supply Points’ 132kV networks.https://www.nationalgrid.co.uk/downloads-view-reciteme/660492. 
• End of Stage 1 report: Produced by Baringa, this report explains the methodology and results from the Power Market Modelling aspect of the work. https://www.nationalgrid.co.uk/downloads-view-reciteme/660492.

Outcomes of Stage 2 and 3 of the project will be reported in subsequent annual progress reports.

Lessons Learnt

Network Modelling Lessons:

• Using 4 representative days to model generation profiles across 12 months fails to capture an accurate profile of generation curtailment. 
• Curtailment of distributed renewable generation across the LV, HV and EHV networks is expected to increase over time, as more distributed generation is installed. 
• Curtailment across the distribution network is expected to be primarily driven by PV generation, under the bottom-up methodology and seasonal profile assumptions utilised throughout this project. 

Power Market Modelling Lessons:

The output of the market model shows that releasing Headroom between now and 2034 could bring significant benefits for the GB system in terms of cost and carbon reduction:

• The accumulated system cost saving could range from ~£330m to ~£17bn between 2023 and 2034 (£27.5m to £1.4bn annually).
• The carbon emissions which could be avoided through headroom relief will range between 0.7 Mt and nearly 5 Mt, which is equivalent to nearly 200 thousand electric vehicles’ carbon savings over their lifetime.
• The impact on wholesale price is likely between £0.70/MWh and £6.00/MWh, some of which may be used to reduce customer bills.
• The highest price impact would happen in January when the system has little generation margin with high demand and limited solar PV generation