Net Zero South Wales – Cross Vector Scenarios

Although the future will be increasingly multi-vector, there is no defined or inherent process for cross-vector network planning at licence area and local level. For example, network and geographical areas used in single vector planning do not currently align as they are conceived to address specific network infrastructure and operation in gas and electricity. There is currently no detailed understanding of the net zero implications on energy networks at a licence area and distribution network level, including understanding the uncertainties and interaction between multi-vector technologies (such as hydrogen)

This project will develop a process and methodology by which both gas and electricity network operators can conduct local level joint scenario planning in a region or licence area and improve understanding of the impacts of a set of net zero carbon pathways on the distribution network, within a single licence area.

Benefits

The methodology developed in this analysis will help improve the development and use of future net-zero cross vector energy scenarios produced for WPD, WWU and other networks. This will lead to more effective planning process for future network investment. Specifically, this process will support:

Decarbonisation and planning for net-zero for distribution networks – it will in particular support improved network planning for technologies with a cross vector impact such as hybrid heat pumps.
Efficient and effective scenario processes – a key impact would be to update the methodologies currently used for distribution scenario processes, to allow the outputs from these studies to be utilised by other stakeholders in addition to gas and electricity networks.

Learnings

Outcomes

The project had three distinct outcomes:

The production of a 28-page learning report containing insights and recommendations on the continued development of whole system energy scenarios.
A spreadsheet dataset detailing results of the South Wales 2050 analysis.
An 86-page data set Companion Report which comprehensively details the developed methodology and results. Both of which were used by National Grid’s Zero 2050 NIA Project.

Lessons Learnt

Below are ten key learning insights generated throughout the project. These can be viewed in more detail in the Data Companion Report.

There is significant evolution on both networks by 2050.
Decentralised energy supply meets an increasing proportion of annual demand.
The pathway for decarbonising heat is the most significant variable in distribution net zero analysis.
The scenarios have a wider range for distributed gas than distributed electricity.
Carbon emissions from heat decline at different times in different scenarios.
Distributed hydrogen production via electrolysis is likely to meet only a proportion of hydrogen demand. Further supply will require a strategy for large-scale hydrogen production, storage and transmission in South Wales.
Electricity demand and supply variance increases in both summer and winter, in all scenarios. Local and national balancing is likely to be increasingly important.
Biomethane has many valuable uses in a net zero scenario, not least in negative emissions. But with a limited supply, its role needs careful consideration.
By 2050, winter day electricity demand doubles in High Electrification, though High Hydrogen has highest total energy demand across both networks.
A High Hydrogen hybrid sensitivity has similar levels of hydrogen demand by 2050 as Core Hydrogen. Though winter day demand looks similar to High Hydrogen.

Net Zero South Wales – Cross Vector Scenarios

Project summary

Benefits

Learnings

Outcomes

Lessons Learnt

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