Project Summary
The UK logistics sector is rapidly transitioning to electric heavy goods vehicles (eHGVs) to meet Net Zero targets, mandating all HGV sales to be zero emission by 2040. This shift requires significant changes to operations, depots, and energy infrastructure. High charging demands at depots, hubs, and corridors risk overloading local grids. Future Fleet develops a geospatially-informed framework that combines fleet archetypes, smart energy schemes, and innovative business models such as shared depots and service-based offerings. By doing so, it will reduce costs, accelerate decarbonisation, and provide networks and logistics operators with actionable strategies for scalable, affordable, and grid-friendly freight electrification.
Innovation Justification
Future Fleet creates an innovative, cross-sectoral, integrated energy system and fleet operator approach to optimise costs and accelerate decarbonisation, therefore addressing Challenge 3.
This project’s innovation is demonstrated through several advances:
New business models to drive eHGV total cost of ownership (TCO) reductions for decarbonisation;
Cross-sector integration of fleet operations, energy flexibility and network planning;
Exploring how restructuring duty cycles can unlock flexibility and reduce grid costs;
Quantifying smart energy scheme impacts for each archetype on peak demand, connections, and reinforcement costs;
Providing granular mapping of geospatial charging hotspots.
Building on the ZEHID programme, which proved the technical feasibility of eHGVs and chargers, this project addresses the next challenge: integrating eHGV charging into the energy system effectively and affordably. ZEHID showed that chargers can be deployed, but without smart integration, clustered loads create grid stress and cost barriers. Future Fleet aims to bridge the gap by developing a comprehensive framework for smart energy management, including flexible connections, behind-the-meter assets, and coordinated access models. It also builds on ESC’s TCO and depot charging business models, extending them into actionable strategies for network planning.
From preceding projects, we learned that fleet operator SMEs face disproportionate challenges in accessing infrastructure, and that fleet duty cycles vary widely – creating opportunities for flexibility if properly understood. These lessons informed our plan with our work packages (WPs) structured to understand fleet and charging archetypes (WP2), then evaluate smart energy schemes (WP3), and model grid impacts and business cases (WP4), culminating in trial design (WP5).
The project concept was developed collaboratively between the consortium members and builds on extensive stakeholder engagement through the ZEHID programme. The consortium includes ZEHID stakeholders (Maritime, Voltempo, ESC), Voltloader (to bring additional insight into SME fleets) and Baringa (bringing expert energy system and asset optimisation modelling capabilities).
Highly granular geospatial demand mapping of eHGV demand and assessment against distribution-level network assets is new in GB. NESO’s Impact of New Technology HGVs project provides high-level geospatial modelling for their Future Energy Scenario (FES), with our project adding distribution level granularity. This will clarify where and how eHGV charging will create concentrated loads, and how more dispersed charging might impact network infrastructure needs. The project will also investigate smart energy enablers that have not previously been evaluated in combination for the freight sector. By exploring how these solutions can be tailored to different fleet archetypes and operational patterns, we aim to find new ways to reduce peak energy demand and lower energy costs for operators.
These innovations will help define a new framework for eHGV integration, supporting both network efficiency and inclusive, cost-efficient access to charging for operators of all sizes.
This project cannot be funded within the price control or considered business-as-usual (BAU) as the scope is inherently exploratory and cross-sectoral, involving uncertainty and risk. It requires collaboration across DNOs, fleet operators, and infrastructure providers, and involves uncertainty that precludes standard investment mechanisms. The outputs will inform future BAU activities, but the work itself is pre-commercial and high-risk, making SIF the appropriate funding route.
Through Alpha, we expect to advance TRL from 2 to 4, IRL from 2 to 4, and CRL from 2 to 4.
The proposed size and scale are appropriate: the project is national in scope but focused on UKPN’s area, with representative fleet and depot types. UKPN’s area is large enough to capture diversity but targeted enough to deliver actionable insights. We considered more targeted approaches, including focusing only on depot charging or only on technical solutions, but rejected them as too narrow. Our integrated approach is necessary to deliver whole-system value and meet innovation challenge 3’s objectives.
Impacts and Benefits
The pre-innovation baseline is for decarbonising HGV depots and operators to apply for a connection sized to meet their full charging capacity needs, without leveraging the most optimal smart energy management approaches, co-location of charging, or operational flexibility improvements. This means that for fleet operators there are high connection costs, high charging costs, and long-lead times. For DNOs there is a lack of detailed understanding of locational grid impacts, and very high reinforcement costs.
By enabling smarter, more flexible integration of eHGV charging into the network, this project seeks to enable the eHGV transition at the lowest cost to networks, customers, and fleet operators.
We explored two deployment scales:
Option 1: UKPN Scale – NPV £94m, with benefits starting in 2029
Option 2: National Scale – NPV £234m, with benefits starting in 2030 to account for an extra year for other DNOs to transition into BAU.
The cost-benefit calculation was performed from 2026-2050.
Financial – Future Reductions in the Cost of Operating the Network
Optimised reinforcement by reducing peak loads of eHGVs and having an improved understanding of their locational impact, UKPN can reinforce more efficiently.
NPV of £59m.
Financial – Cost Savings per Annum for Users of Network Services
Fleet operators will benefit from decreased charging costs. The project will develop propositions such as shared hubs, flexible access models, and smart charging schedules that reduce maximum demand and associated capacity charges. Only the smart charging benefit was quantified due to data availability.
NPV of £26m.
Fleet operators will benefit from lower connection costs due to the right sizing of connections. Prior engagement has shown this to be a substantial benefit, but it has not been quantified due to a lack of reliable data. The project will address this specifically in WP4.
Environmental – Carbon Reduction (Direct CO₂ Savings per Annum)
The project supports direct carbon savings from the accelerated displacement of diesel vehicles, enabling the transition by removing grid-related barriers. Smart charging and local renewable generation further enhance direct CO₂ savings.
Environmental – Carbon Reduction (Indirect CO₂ Savings per Annum)
Indirect carbon savings will be achieved through optimised reinforcement, which involves embodied carbon in materials and construction. Enabling flexible charging and storage also supports charging at lower carbon intensity times.
NPV of £8m.
Revenues – Improved Access to Revenues for Users of Network Services
Fleet operators participating in flexibility markets—such as demand response or vehicle-to-grid services—will gain access to new revenue streams. The project will explore how depot-side batteries and smart charging can be monetised creating opportunities for logistics businesses to become active energy market participants.
New to Market – Processes
The development of fleet archetype flexibility profiles and geospatial grid impact modelling introduces new planning processes for DNOs. These enable more accurate forecasting and targeted infrastructure investment.
New to Market – Services
The project supports the emergence of depot-as-a-service and charging-as-a-service models, particularly for SMEs. These services offer bundled access to vehicles, infrastructure, and energy, lowering barriers to entry and supporting broader electrification.
New commercial models, such as Voltloader’s service-based offering, create revenue streams for infrastructure providers and aggregators. Shared charging hubs, depot-as-a-service models, and bundled vehicle-energy propositions represent new market opportunities beyond traditional fleet ownership and energy procurement.
Other Benefits
The project supports inclusive innovation by addressing the needs of smaller operators and promoting scalable, replicable solutions. It also contributes to policy alignment by supporting the goals of ZEHID, eFREIGHT, and the UK’s net-zero freight strategy.
