Project Summary
As Britain warms due to climate change, electrification of heat will mean increasing customer access to space cooling leading to increased summer peak demands. In current distribution network planning cooling demand is currently poorly accounted for and based on limited, high-level modelling. Additionally, cooling’s potential to provide flexibility during periods of network stress has not been considered.
CoolDown will, for the first time, explore the impact of cooling on network capacity by producing improved uptake and demand projections as well as developing novel commercial models to incentivise and unlock space-cooling flexibility, reducing network reinforcement requirements and optimising value for customers.
Innovation Justification
To date, the impact of SC on electricity demand has only been modelled on a national grid scale, and even then only at a high level. No DNO-led or supported project has explored distribution network impacts of SC and how flexible SC demand can be unlocked to alleviate them.
CoolDown will be the first project to consider these elements in-depth, particularly using network impact insights to appraise the value of demand response and how to incentivise and commercialise SC flexibility from end users.
The lack of prior detailed consideration given to SC network impact means that bolstering understanding of future SC scale and exploring novel commercial models to improve the value and capture of system benefits from flexible building temperature control are innovative activities which cannot be considered part of business-as-usual activities.
So that SC’s network impact can be properly forecasted and planned for, CoolDown will apply high-resolution dynamic thermal simulation modelling to explore the SC response of the building stock under a range of scenarios. This will determine, for the first time, which distribution substations may be at risk of overload due to SC demand, and how these substations are characterised in terms of building types, numbers, and solar PV penetration.
CoolDown will use these insights to assess the need for, and feasibility of, specifically designed new and innovative commercial models to incentivise SC flexibility and minimise the need for network reinforcement. The Discovery phase will produce a longlist of potential models informed by learnings from international markets and UK network innovation, such as the NGED EQUINOX project.
The TRL and CRL are currently at 1 and will have moved to 2/3 by the end of the Discovery phase. There is no technology integration associated with CoolDown.
Given these low current readiness levels, the Discovery phase will provide a suitable vehicle to build network knowledge of potential SC impacts and assess its value as a flexible load. A future Alpha phase can then delve deeper into the value of SC flexibility products from a consumer perspective, undertaking consumer-focused research, identifying and onboarding consumer-focused partners, and further narrowing potential commercial models to be trialled at scale in the Beta phase. Given this, CoolDown is well-suited to the SIF process, guiding the concept of UK SC distribution network flexibility through the different readiness levels to deliver a business-as-usual network flexibility product.
Impacts and Benefits
The impacts and benefits of network flexibility from domestic, office and retail SC have not yet been appraised and quantified in the UK. The core benefit is the expected financial savings from deferring or avoiding network reinforcement.
CoolDown is expecting to deliver the following:
- Financial – future reductions in the cost of operating the network – Network flexibility derived from SC load could defer or avoid the need for summer-peaking substations to be reinforced, reducing expenditure. Additionally, improving SC demand projections and load profiles will improve network forecasting and lead to more financially efficient network investment plans, as well as fewer faults on the network due to overloaded assets.
- Financial – cost savings per annum on energy bills for customers – New commercial models designed to incentivise customers to reduce their SC electricity usage during peak demand times could provide benefits to customers by:
- Receiving compensation for reducing their electricity demand through mechanisms such as demand response payments or a new time-of-use tariff.
- Saving money that would have been spent on electricity during periods where they reduce usage, or through wider behaviour change instigated by being on that commercial model.
- Reduced network charges on their energy bill due to better network management and reduced reinforcement costs.
- Environmental – carbon reduction (direct) – Reduced SC demand will reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions associated with electricity production during times when flexible SC is requested.
- Environmental - carbon reduction (indirect) – Reduced network reinforcement requirements will save the emissions associated with their construction and installation.
- Revenues - creation of new revenue streams – As detailed above, novel commercial models for SC flexibility will offer revenue opportunities to businesses and homes with relevant technologies installed, increasing the potential market for local flexibility requirements.
- New to market – products, processes, and services – SC demand response commercial models will be a new addition to the growing and maturing GB flexibility market. We will consider how such models complement other low-carbon heating flexibility products such as those being developed in NGED EQUINOX. There is also an opportunity for aggregators to further develop their business models, earning fees for coordinating demand response programmes amongst customers.
