We will develop a "Weather Fault" tool which can:
· Forecast severe and extreme weather events.
· Improve the accuracy within the current 7-day forecasting window.
· Double the current forecasting window (to 14 days ahead).
· Predict specific network faults and risks.
Our discovery phase will take our existing network data sets, coupled with weather data supplied by the Met Office and assess if this data is sufficient to support the project aims, or identify the gap to realise the required format and volume.
As a result, the proposed project meets the scope for "how novel uses of data and digital platforms can significantly improve network planning, modelling, and forecasting capabilities" specifically by:
1. Applying novel probabilistic techniques to our data sets
2. Developing a digital platform within our control rooms to improve our forecasting capabilities
3. Improving our network planning through proactive decision making based on data driven forecasts and impact analysis
The main users of this innovation are control room engineers and asset managers. Our objectives are fully informed by their needs and they are our internal project sponsor. From our engagement to date, our users need a way to:
1. Reduce customer interruptions & minutes lost due to network asset extreme weather faults
2. Improve accuracy, range, and specificity of fault prediction for network assets
3. Communicate actionable outcomes from control room
This project is led by SP Transmission and supported by SP Distribution and NGET. Both the transmission and distribution systems can be adversely affected by severe and extreme weather.
Arup is selected as partner because their previous experience on the NIA project Forward Resilience Measures collaborated with NGET. Moreover, Arup's own underlying energy resilience framework provides a holistic, practical and evidence- based approach to assess resilience, taking into consideration both the physical aspects and the less tangible aspects associated with human behavior in order to enable a common understanding of interdependencies and vulnerabilities, sudden shocks and chronic stresses.
The MET office is a partner for their scientific knowledge and expertise, and their previous experience on NIA projects such as Advanced Weather Forecast for Dynamic Line Rating. The MET office is also the owner of the weather data. The Met Office is recognized as a world leader in Numerical Weather Prediction.
The University of Glasgow, as the academic partner, have expertise in probabilistic forecasting, decision-making under uncertainty, and their extensive experience in energy forecasting.
Problem Bring Solved
Severe and extreme weather events have a major impact on the electricity network, resulting in widespread network outages for significant periods of time. Evidence has shown that climate change has contributed to longer and hotter heatwaves, more persistent droughts, more frequent wildfire, and more extreme rainfalls.
As examples:
· In Texas February 2021, a perfect storm of failed supply and historically high energy demand during extreme cold weather caused 4.5miIIion households and business to lose power.
· In July 2021, severe flooding following unprecedented heatwaves in western Germany caused 200,000 households to lose power.
· In July 2021, central China, record shattering rainfall led to 749,600 households losing power.
While we cannot control the weather, we can seek to predict it more accurately with longer visibility and identify its impact in order to protect our customers’ supply.
Opportunity
Our opportunity is to use the recent advances in supercomputing and numerical weather prediction to combine state-of-art weather forecasting, novel statistical post-processing, power system modelling and resilience metrics to predict short-term extreme weather impacts further into the future, identify weather-related faults in the 7-14 days window, and resultant faults on the network.
As a result, engineers will make informed decisions based on actionable fault and risk predictions communicated to the control room. This project will empower control room engineers and asset managers to improve their ability to protect network assets, increase the efficiency of operation practice, and ultimately reduce customer minutes lost, extend asset lifespan, reducing thereby both cost and carbon footprint.
The National Infrastructure Commission has recommended there is a need for a new framework for resilience which anticipates future shocks and stresses; improves actions to resist, absorb and recover from them by testing for vulnerabilities; values resilience properly; and drives adaptation before it is too late. We will address all six aspects of resilience: anticipate, resist, absorb, recover, adapt and transform.
