This project aims to establish a strong and holistic knowledge base around the potential development, and impacts of, tidal range energy in Great Britain, with a priority placed on grid operability. This work is intended to serve as a Strategic Outline Case (SOC), focussing on the strategic and economic case for tidal range energy. We also propose to conduct high-level assessments for the Commercial, Financial, and Management cases, with the objective of offering a potential solution related to tidal range energy.
Benefits
This project could bring several benefits, including:
- Understanding the potential role of Tidal Range in delivering the zero-carbon transition
- Establishing a more holistic approach for tidal range energy potential in decarbonising the grid by 2035 or sooner.
- Allowing the NESO to assess and understand potential grid impacts from assumed tidal projects.
- Allowing the NESO to engage in more informed dialogue with potential developers or government-led proposals.
- Through economic case and wholesale price modelling, a clear understanding of the impacts on consumers of Tidal Range generation projects
Learnings
Outcomes
1. First GB-Wide System Operability Evidence for Tidal Range
The project provides the first holistic GB electricity system assessment of tidal range generation using PLEXOS modelling. This moves the discussion beyond theoretical resource potential and into quantified system impacts, including wholesale prices, constraint volumes and balancing considerations.
2. Quantified Understanding of Economic and Consumer Impacts
Through integrated economic modelling, the project generated indicative NPV and LCOE values for representative tidal range sites and assessed potential impacts on subsidy requirements and wholesale price effects. This provides an improved evidence base for understanding potential consumer cost implications under different deployment and financing scenarios.
3. Improved Strategic and Spatial Insight
By assessing multiple representative sites across Great Britain, the study identified how location and scale materially influence system operability and economic performance. This supports more informed spatial planning discussions and highlights the importance of strategic coordination in any future deployment.
4. Enhanced Policy and Investment Signalling Capability
The outputs provide a structured framework linking operability, economic performance and commercial considerations. This strengthens NESO’s ability to engage with government, developers and stakeholders using system-level evidence rather than qualitative assumptions.
5. Identification of Key Trade-Offs and Future Research Needs
The project has clarified areas where further detailed investigation would be required, including spatial optimisation, detailed system services quantification, and financing model sensitivity. This reduces uncertainty by clearly defining next analytical steps.
6. Strengthened Internal System Understanding
The project has materially increased NESO’s internal understanding of tidal range as a system-integrated technology, enabling more informed engagement in future whole-system planning conversations.
Collectively, these outcomes provide a materially improved, technology-neutral evidence base on tidal range energy within the GB electricity system and support more informed strategic decision-making.
Lessons Learnt
The project did experience some delays to delivery (compared to original proposed timelines). This allowed time for us to draw on the substantial expertise within NESO including several strategic planning and economics experts as well as the delivery partner to ensure the end product is robust and useful. Drawing on this range of expertise should be replicated on future similar projects, and allowing time in project plans for this review, particularly early on in the process, is a key takeaway form this project.
