Learnings

Outcomes

The project outputs are directly applicable to other electricity network licensees, and the framework developed is a best practice example that can be adapted. This methodology also has the potential to be utilised across other transmission & distribution network licensees. 

Recommendations for future work

The framework and model offer the basis for further work to enhance its practicality for NGET and its impacts to the wider community: 

1. Review future trends and scenarios framework to improve detail.
    
2. Integrate and develop improved metrics further to support the resilience maturity assessment.  
   
   
3. AC cascading modelling for resilience applications: The impact assessment model developed is effective in capturing and quantifying the initial shock from the hazard. AC cascading models which are capable of capturing and reflecting the cascading impacts of asset outages initiated by extreme weather events will help improve accuracy and practicality.   
   
   
4. Machine learning-driven applications for resilience assessment and enhancement: The simulation models developed in this stage of the project generate a wealth of data which can be utilised for the training and implementation of machine learning approaches for assessing power grid resilience and enabling real-time decision-making on preventive and corrective resilient actions. This will help improve the computational efficiency of the generation, simulation and analysis of resilience events, avoiding further time-consuming simulations; hence increasing the practicality of the model.  
   
   
5. Optimisation investment decision-making tool on resilience strategies: It has been demonstrated that the models can quantify the benefits of pre-selected network reinforcement options in reliability and resilient. Building on these capabilities, an investment decision-making tool which will explicitly integrate resilience as a planning criterion can be developed and implemented. This tool will integrate the outputs and metrics of the models developed in this phase of the project to recommend those network enhancement portfolios, including both infrastructure hardening and flexibility solutions, that achieve effective trade-offs between key metrics, including reliability, resilience and cost.  
   
   
6. Multi-vector and multi-sector resilience analysis and planning: The recent report by UK National Infrastructure Commission on critical infrastructure resilience highlighted the emerging need of multi-vector and multi-sector coordinated response and planning against high-impact low-probability events and future network stresses. The fully validated and calibrated NGET electricity model developed in this phase of the project can be used for its coupling with the models of other critical sectors towards cross-sectoral, coupled planning and operation models, such as heat, gas/hydrogen and water sectors. 

Lessons Learnt

1. Development of the resilience approach relied on extensive engagement across the business. Several engagement techniques (e.g. survey, workshop, working groups) were used, depending on the purpose and the audience. This engagement was crucial for the validation of the framework and allowed NGET colleagues to further understand the holistic nature of the business through interactions across diverse teams.
   
   The development of the model required data validation and confirmation across several internal teams which was coordinated effectively. A positive project reputation was developed, and time was taken to demonstrate the value of the resilience approach. This helped maintain a high level of engagement throughout the project duration. It is intended that the framework will continue to enable these kinds of interactions going forward.
   
   The project attempted to communicate alignment with other NGET initiatives from the outset, but the messaging was not as effective as intended. It is not intended for the framework to create an additional, lengthy, audit-like task. Rather, it is meant to be a supportive, informative, decision-making tool that integrates and aligns with day-to-day roles to improve strategic business planning. Future work should ensure that there is clarity in the messaging when explaining the link between new and existing initiatives.
   
   
2. Validation was undertaken using a real load flow, ensuring the confidence in the impact of the simulation outputs. There is high confidence that a realistic and practical representation of NGET’s network has been developed. This representation can be built upon for future work and analysis.
   
   The development of a NGET network resilience model using publicly available data was a time-consuming task with highly demanding computational times and resources required for addressing the inherent uncertainty in the modelling of network shocks and stresses. Nevertheless, it is now working and can be built on for any follow-on work. The use of large datasets in subsequent project(s) is likely to become a constant in the short and medium term. Hence, it is worth exploring opportunities to refine the data.
   
   
3. To facilitate the effective data collection process, we developed a ‘proof of concept’ tool in PowerApps that allowed NGET stakeholders to complete the self-assessment process. Alongside this, we created a Power BI dashboard to visualise the results and consolidate the scores in a single location, both of which added significant value to the project. 
   
   The initial assessment of maturity was used to test the ‘proof of concept’ of the Resilience Assessment Framework. Subsequently, there is now an improved understanding of the duration of this process, and the level of effort and detail required to draw meaningful conclusions. Now that the framework has been developed, there is also an improved understanding of the most appropriate people/business areas to complete the assessment. Future iterations will benefit from this initial experience, improving the quality of the self-assessment exercise. 

Dissemination

To present the findings and outcomes from this project, we delivered three internal dissemination events to share the development process and methodology, the modelling outputs and the self-assessment opportunities and recommendations.  

Externally 

Project progress was showcased during the Energy Networks Innovation Conference (ENIC) on both the 8th – 9th December 2020 and we aim to showcase the completed parts of the project at ENIC in 2021. 

Parts of the project will also be presented virtually to members and non-members of the Institution of Gas Engineers and Managers. This will take place on the 28th June 2021.